March 7, 2022
Crystal Yu, UW Sociology
Bio Crystal Yu is PhD student in Sociology at UW and NIH OBSSR T32 Fellow in the Demography and Data Science program.
Population projections provide predictions of future population sizes in a given area. Most population projections are produced using deterministic approaches. Although different proposed growth scenarios can be used to produce a range of potential values of future population totals, they involve predetermined, potentially unrealistic assumptions about how populations may change. Moreover, they do not provide any statistical uncertainty around expected population change. In this project, we build on previous research on probabilistic projections of fertility and mortality at the subnational level (Ševčíková et al. 2018; Ševčíková and Raftery 2021), as well as prior work on probabilistic projections of migration (Azose and Raftery 2015; Azose et al. 2016), to produce fully probabilistic population projections at the subnational level. We illustrate our approach using publicly available vital statistics and population estimates for Washington State to produce probabilistic population projections for counties in Washington State from 2020 to 2050.