Swanson Presents Recent Work on Human Extinction to FSCPE
Posted: 9/5/2025 ()
CSDE External Affiliate David Swanson (UC Riverside) was invited to present research results to the Research Committee of the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates & Projections (FSCPE) on September 16, 2025. The virtual presentation, titled “Human Extinction: A Probabilistic Demographic Perspective” drew on an Association of Population Centers (APC) working paper by Swanson and co-author Jeff Tayman. Swanson and Tayman estimate with 66% confidence intervals that by 2139 the world population will be between 1.55 billion and 1.81 billion, by 2239, it will be between 4.95 million and 5.84 million, and by 2339 there will be no humans. The presentation was kindly organized by Xiuhong “Helen” You, Ph. D., Associate Director and Senior Demographer at the Texas Demographic Center, University of Texas, San Antonio, and was followed by a lively discussion. To read the working paper, visit this link.