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Yu, Ševčíková, Raftery, and Curran Publish Research on Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections

Posted: 5/26/2023 (CSDE Research)

CSDE Trainee Crystal Yu, Senior Research Scientist Hana Ševčíková, and CSDE Affiliates Adrian Raftery and Sara Curran published “Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections“ in the upcoming June issue of Demography. The study develops, implements, and validates a Bayesian method for producing subnational population projections, including migration, by extending an approach adopted by the United Nations. Small areal units or subnational units provide special challenges for classic demographic approaches, their application using the counties of Washington State and comparing the results with extant deterministic projections produced by Washington State demographers demonstrates the validity and reliability of the method.

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