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Godwin and Wakefield Publish Research on Space-Time Modeling of Child Mortality in LMICs

Posted: 2/22/2021 (CSDE Research)

CSDE Fellow Jessica Godwin and CSDE Affiliate Jon Wakefield just published their research on “Space-Time Modeling of Child Mortality at the Admin-2 Level in Low and Middle Income Countries Context” in Statistics in Medicine.  Their work demonstrates innovative approaches in statistical methods for estimating child mortality when data are sparse or variably observed at different levels of aggregation and collected through different methodologies. They extend earlier work to provide estimates at the Admin-2 Level so as to improve information for targeted interventions to reduce child mortality. In the paper they describe four extensions to previous work: (i) combining summary birth history (SBH) data with first birth history (FBH) data, (ii) modeling on a yearly scale, to combine data on a yearly scale with data at coarser time scales, (iii) adjusting direct estimates in Admin‐2 areas where we do not observe any deaths due to small sample sizes, (iv) acknowledge differences in data sources by modeling potential bias arising from the various data sources. The methods are illustrated using household survey and census data from Kenya and Malawi, to produce mortality estimates from 1980 to the time of the most recent survey, and predictions to 2020. To read the article, click here.