Swanson and Co-Authors Publish Research in Population Research and Policy Review
Posted: 6/26/2025 (CSDE Research)
David Swanson and colleagues Jeff Tayman and Mike Cline, recently published a research article in Population Research and Policy Review titled, “A New Approach to Probabilistic County Population Forecasting with an Example Application to West Texas.” This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts using the 107 counties that make up West Texas as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria routinely applied by state and local demographers. The authors also report the results of two independent comparisons supporting the argument that this approach is valid. The paper concludes it is well-suited for developing probabilistic population forecasts in the United States and elsewhere. To learn more about this study, visit the link to read the full article.