CSDE Affiliate Adrian Raftery (Statistics & Sociology) just published an article in Demography titled, “Bayesian Projection of Extant Refugee and Asylum Seeker Populations.” Raftery and his co-author propose a modeling pipeline based on Bayesian hierarchical time-series modeling for projecting refugee population official statistics by country of origin using data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Growth and decline phases, separated by a peak, are modeled by logistic growth and decline through an interrupted logistic process model. The authors evaluate their method through a set of validation exercises that show it has good performance for forecasts at 1-, 5-, and 10-year horizons, and present projections for 35 countries of origin of large refugee and asylum seeker populations.