CSDE Affiliate Adrian Raftery (Statistics) spoke to UW News to share insights from a recent paper, “Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth,” published in Communications Earth & Environment. Raftery and co-authors used data from 2015–2024 to probabilistically assess the changes in climate change prospects associated with emissions since the Paris climate agreement was signed in 2015. Carbon intensity declined (i.e., improved) substantially over that period, but overall carbon emissions rose, due to the rapid rise in world GDP, which more than canceled out the progress made. The chance of staying below 2 °C remained low, at 17%. However, the chance of the most catastrophic climate change, above 3 °C, has gone down substantially, from 26% to 9%. Read more.