Swanson Evaluates Models for Estimating Population Stability
Posted: 3/7/2024 (CSDE Research)
CSDE Affiliate David Swanson (Sociology, UC Riverside) authored new research in Canadian Studies in Population, titled “Models for Estimating Intrinsic r and the Mean Age of a Population at Stability: Evaluations at the National and Sub-national Level“. Using Canada’s provinces and territories in conjunction with the “Cohort Change Ratio” approach to generating a stable population, Swanson tested the accuracy of regression models constructed from national-level data designed to estimate two factors of a population at stability from initial conditions at the sub-national levels: (1) its constant rate of change, denoted here by r’; and (2) mean population age. He found that these models provide reasonably accurate estimates. In the tests at the subnational level, the accuracy, as expected, is less, but the results indicate that the national level models provide estimates that are useful because they are tractable and provide information not available from the traditional analytical approaches. They also show that there are connections between initial conditions and stability that have been overlooked.