Swanson to Present at the Estonian Population Research Center
Posted: 5/8/2025 ()
CSDE External Affiliate David Swanson (UC Riverside) was invited to present a talk titled “A new approach to probabilistic population forecasting with an application to Estonia” based on work with Jeff Tayman. This presentation will apply measures of uncertainty to existing population forecasts using Estonia as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria used by demographers who routinely generate population forecasts. This paper applies the uncertainty measures to a population forecast based on the Cohort-Component Method, which links the probabilistic world forecast uncertainty to demographic theory, an important consideration in developing accurate forecasts. Read the full abstract here.