Swanson Co-Authors Research Article in Demografie on Probabilistic Intervals Around Population Forecasts
Posted: 9/18/2025 ()
CSDE External Affiliate David Swanson (UC Riverside) and co-author Jeff Tayman (UC San Diego) recently published a research article in Demografie titled, “Probabilistic Intervals around Population Forecasts: A New Approach with a Subnational Example Using Washington State Counties.” Population forecasts produced by governments at all levels are used in the public sector, the private sector, and by researchers. In this paper, Dr. Swanson and Dr. Tayman detail how a method for producing measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing subnational population forecasts while meeting several important criteria. The paper also includes an assessment of the efficacy of the method by: (1) examining the change in uncertainty intervals it produces by population size and population growth rate; and (2) comparing the width and temporal change of the uncertainty intervals it produces to the width and temporal change of uncertainty intervals produced by a Bayesian approach. To read the full article visit this link or download this pdf.