Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology

Adrian Raftery Offers a Simpler Approach to Performing Probabilistic Population Projections

Posted: 1/16/2018 (CSDE Research)

Affiliate Adrian Raftery, Professor of Statistics and Sociology, and colleagues recently published an article in Population Studies that addresses the United Nations’ methods for performing probabilistic population projections. In the article, the authors offer a simpler approach to probabilistic population projections for nations with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, one which also happens to align better with projection methods the UN employs for other nations. In an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment, the authors’ proposed approach provided projections that were akin to but simpler than the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model the UN currently uses. The full article is accessible below.

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