Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology

CSSS Seminar: Bayesian Poisson Tucker Decomposition for Learning the Structure of International Relations

Posted: 11/14/2016 (Local Events)

This seminar introduces Bayesian Poisson Tucker decomposition (BPTD) for modeling country–country interaction event data. These data consist of interaction events of the form “country i took action a toward country j at time t.” BPTD discovers overlapping country–community memberships, including the number of latent communities. In addition, it discovers directed community–community interaction networks that are specific to “topics” of action types and temporal “regimes.” The presentation shows that BPTD yields an efficient MCMC inference algorithm and achieves better predictive performance than related models. It also demonstrates that it discovers interpretable latent structure that agrees with our knowledge of international relations.

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Date: 11/16/2016

Time: 12:30 - 1:30 PM PT

Location: University of Washington, Savery 409