Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology

Training Spotlight: Jessica Godwin and Adrian Raftery Evaluate Projection Method for Life Expectancy in Nations with HIV/AIDS Epidemics

Posted: 11/28/2017 (CSDE Research)

CDSE Fellow Jessica Godwin—a graduate student in the Department of Statistics—and affiliate Adrian Raftery—Professor of Statistics and Sociology—recently published their article “Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic” in Demographic Research. In the article, Godwin and Raftery expand Bayesian probabilistic projection methods previously developed by Raftery and colleagues in order to include measures of HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for adults in life expectancy projections for countries suffering from generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. Their findings demonstrate that the projection method that accounts for HIV prevalence and ART coverage in these countries performs better than methods that do not. Moreover, these projections indicate that broad ART coverage in these countries would not only improve life expectancy to pre-epidemic levels, but also lead to a continued increase in life expectancy over the course of the century. The full article is available below.

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