On October 4, 2023 (12:30pm), CSDE Affiliate Adrian Raftery (Sociology & Statistics) will be giving a talk titled “Very Long-Term Probablistic Population Projections for Assessing the Social Cost of Carbon” to the UW’s Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences.  Raftery will be addressing how population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are desired to get an idea of accuracy, to assess changes, and to make decisions involving risks. In a major breakthrough, since 2015 the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology. Assessment of the social cost of carbon relies on long-term forecasts of carbon emissions, which in turn rely on even longer-range population and economic forecasts, to 2300. We extend the UN method to very-long range population forecasts, by combining the statistical approach with expert review and elicitation. We find that, while world population is projected to grow for most of the rest of this century, it is likely to stabilize in the 22nd century, and to decline in the 23rd century.

Scott W. Allard, CSDE Affiliate and Evans School Professor of Social Policy will be presenting “Washington State Ballots Project: Understanding Rejections and Cures,” at the Evans Research Seminar.

On October 2 (11am) Lindsey Novak (Reed College) will be sharing their research on the economics of abduction marriage to the JSDE seminar. In several Asian and African countries, a sizable share of marriages are initiated by the man abducting the woman he wishes to wed. In this paper, we use quantitative and qualitative methods to characterize the practice of abduction marriage. We first use Demographic and Health Survey data along with ethnographic data to characterize women and ethnic groups affected by this practice in Ethiopia. Secondly, we present the results from in-depth surveys with community leaders and abducted women in the Gambella region of Ethiopia to gain a deeper understanding of how the practice functions. Finally, we empirically examine the hypothesis–found in the literature and reiterated in our qualitative interviews–that abduction marriage is most often used by men to improve bargaining power in marriage negotiations and reduce the size of the bride price payment at marriage. We find that the experience of negative rainfall shocks, a proxy for income shocks, during teenage years increases the probability of being abducted only for women from ethnic groups that practice bride price. We argue this is consistent with the strategic use of abduction to reduce the size of the bride price payment.   The JSDE seminar will take place in 410 Savery Hall or via zoom: https://washington.zoom.us/j/6044712020

CSDE and the South Asia Center are co-sponsoring a workshop on “Migration and Health: Perspectives from South Asia” on October 12 & 13, where CSDE Affiliates Nathalie Williams and Sarfraz Khan will be hosting. Events on October 12 will be held in 337 HUB and events on October 13 will be held in 360 Parrington. Participants can join by zoom, as well. Details here.

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) is hosting a webinar with state and local-level survey programs to discuss experiences in multimode health and nutrition data collection. Multimode data collection can include interviews, physical assessments, and biospecimen collection. The webinar will address topics such as innovative data collection, including novel survey measurements and meaningful community engagement. The collaborative discussions will generate ideas to improve survey participant experience, response rates, efficiency, and outreach. There will be presentations by State and local programs followed by panel discussion and Q&A on issues related to response rates, community engagement, funding, innovative methods, and health equity. Register here!