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CSDE Seminar Series

Population Research Discovery Seminars

What Changed Between Gen X and Millennials? Investigating Recent Declines in US Fertility

Janna Johnson, Hubert H. Humphery School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota

Parrington Hall Room 360

To Join By Zoom: Register HERE

Link to meet with Dr. Johnson here on February 2nd

12:30-1:30 PM PT

360 Parrington Hall


Population Health Initiative

Fertility rates in the United States have declined substantially since the 2008 Great Recession following a long period of relative stability. Using data from the Current Population Survey, American Community Survey, and National Survey of Family Growth, we identify an apparent generational shift in fertility patterns between Generation X (born 1965-1979) and Millennials (born 1980-1995). We investigate the potential role changes in partnering may play in driving this decrease in fertility. As Millennials have not completed their childbearing years and may simply be delaying their fertility more than Gen X, we calculate the fertility rates Millennials would need to experience in their late 30s and 40s in order to achieve similar total cohort fertility as Gen X. While still preliminary, our work points to the potential importance of the unique economic and social conditions experienced by Millennials in young adulthood in shaping their fertility.

Janna Johnson is associate professor at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota. An economist and demographer, her research employs cutting-edge econometric methods to answer questions about U.S. population and policy, particularly those concerning internal migration within the United States. Her work has appeared in leading journals such as American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of Labor Economics, and Quantitative Economics. She received a PhD in public policy from the University of Chicago and an AB from Dartmouth College.