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Estimating Total Fertility from the Shape of the Age Pyramid: Bayesian Models and Applications

Posted: 5/10/2021 (CSDE Seminar Series)

At the CSDE seminar on May 14th, Dr. Carl Schmertmann will present “Estimating Total Fertility from the Shape of the Age Period: Bayesian Models and Applications”. CSDE Affiliate Jon Wakefield will moderate the discussion. Dr. Schmertmann will present a new Bayesian method for providing estimates of the total fertility rate (TFR) and quantifying the uncertainty of those estimates with incomplete or inadequate vital registration, and the application of this method to indigenous populations in Brazil for which TFR has not been previously estimated. Dr. Schmertmann is the William J. Serow Professor of Economics at Florida State University and the Director of FSU’s Center for Demography and Population Health.

Register for Dr. Schmertmann’s Zoom seminar here. This quarter, CSDE is recording the seminar series and posting the links on its website. Visit our site here.

After the seminar, UW Statistics PhD Candidate Jessica Godwin will facilitate a graduate student discussion with Dr. Schmertmann. RSVP by emailing her at

Date: 05/14/2021

Time: 12.30 - 1.30

Location: Virtual via Zoom