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Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology

*New* CSDE Computational Demography Working Group: Kentaro Hoffman on Inference on Predicted Data and its Implications for Demography (04/01/26)

The first Computational Demography Working Group speaker of the spring quarter will be Dr. Kentaro Hoffman, and titled, “Drawing Rhinoceroses with Algorithms: Inference on Predicted Data and Its implications for Demography”. The talk is hybrid and will take place on April 1  in Raitt 223  from 10 – 11 AM PST. Use this link to register and log onto Zoom. To receive the newsletter from CDWG, participants may choose to join our listserv here.
Title: “Drawing Rhinoceroses with Algorithms: Inference on Predicted Data and Its implications for Demography”

Abstract: Machine learning is increasingly used in demography to predict quantities that were once directly observed. Yet predictions are often treated as data, a practice that can lead to biased estimates and misleading uncertainty. This talk introduces Inference on Predicted Data (IPD), a framework for conducting valid statistical inference when outcomes are generated by black-box prediction models rather than measured directly.

I illustrate IPD through an application to verbal autopsies, where causes of death are inferred from free-text narratives using modern NLP methods, including large language models. While these models can achieve high predictive accuracy, naïvely using predicted causes of death in downstream analyses produces distorted demographic patterns. IPD-based corrections leverage a small amount of labeled data to recover valid estimates and uncertainty, even under prediction error and distribution shift.

The results highlight a key lesson for computational demography: accurate predictions alone are not enough for reliable population inference.

Learn more about Dr. Hoffman: Kentaro Hoffman is a statistician whose research focuses on inference with AI-generated and predicted data, uncertainty quantification, and responsible machine learning. He was previously a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Washington and Johns Hopkins University, working with Tyler McCormick, Peter Searson, and Scott Zeger. His work lies at the intersection of statistics, machine learning, and computational demography, with applications including verbal autopsies, global mortality estimation, electronic medical records, and active learning.

Call for Papers: Demog-Crazy 2026 Award (04/01/26)

The Quetelet Journal warmly invites population scientists to submit an abstract for consideration for the Demog-Crazy 2026 Award by April Fools Day 2026. Authors of shortlisted abstracts will be required to submit their full paper by 1st July 2026.

Inspired by the spirit of Belgian surrealism, the Demog-Crazy Award celebrates and publishes a scholarly article in population sciences that initially amuses readers with its title and summary, but ultimately provokes thoughtful engagement and inspires further reading. The award underscores the idea that even research in demography that appears unconventional or absurd can yield valuable theoretical or methodological contributions.

Would your article stand a chance—or is it firmly not in the running for the Demog-Crazy Award? No problem! RQJ welcomes original contributions in the traditional empirical format, as well as papers adopting unconventional approaches. These include theoretical literature reviews, methodological studies, “data papers”, advocacy for heterodox or controversial perspectives, reports on negative results, replication of previously published findings, descriptive analyses of new data, studies using unusual datasets, mixed-methods research, and more. In all cases, your submission is most welcome!

Request for Pilot Grant Proposals on Rural Population Health and Aging (INRPHA) (04/10/26)

Request for Proposals – Interdisciplinary Network on Rural Population Health and Aging With funding from the National Institute on Aging, the Interdisciplinary Network on Rural Population Health and Aging (INRPHA) invites investigators to submit proposals for pilot research that enhances understanding of the multilevel and multidimensional drivers of rural health and aging trends and disparities. Investigators may request up to $35,000. Proposals are due by Friday, April 10.

Call for Papers: Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2026 (Virtual) on Demography and Human Capital (04/20/26)

The call for submissions for the Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2026 (WIC2026) “Demography and Human Capital” is now open!

This conference aims to advance theories, data, and multi-dimensional demographic methods for modelling human capital formation and its dynamics over time, and to connect cutting-edge evidence to policy debates globally. Human capital – education, skills, health, and capabilities – is a central driver of demographic change and a key lens for understanding social and economic development, inequality, and resilience.

We invite contributions from all disciplinary background and methodological traditions.

Key information:

Submission deadline: 30 April 2026

Conference date: Tuesday, 01 December 2026 – Wednesday, 02 December 2026

Venue: Festive Hall, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Dr. Ignaz-Seipel-Platz 2, 1010 Vienna

Format: onsite participation only

* Please note that the conference will take place immediately following the 50th anniversary celebration of the Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) on 30 November 2026 at the same venue. Conference participants are warmly invited to attend the VID’s 50th anniversary celebration as well. *

 

Applications Open for Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) Data User Workshop (04/15/26)

The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), begun in 1968, is the world’s longest-running multigenerational household panel study. It is used to investigate scientific and policy questions about life course trajectories in health and well-being, intergenerational social and economic mobility, income and wealth inequality, family investments in children, neighborhood effects on opportunity and achievement, and many other topics. This five-day, in-person only workshop–held from June 15 – 19, 2026 at the University of Michigan will orient participants to the content and structure of the core PSID interview, its special topics modules, and its supplemental studies, including the Child Development Supplement (CDS) and the Transition into Adulthood Supplement (TAS). The workshop is designed for graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, junior faculty, and research professionals. Applications are due by April 15, 2026.

Activities will be divided between lecture sessions, discussions, and hands-on labs, allowing ample time for breaks. Lecture sessions will cover topics such as study design, changes to content and sample composition over time, rules for following sample members into new households, and weighting. Classroom lab sessions using PSID data extracts will illustrate key concepts and participants will develop their own analytic data files under the guidance of project staff. In addition, we will discuss topics including the recently-released and newly collected genomics data collected from 2014-2023 as well as new data files which explain family relationships and demographic characteristics over time.

Course management will be through Canvas and class meetings will be held in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Travel stipends will be available for those who do not have accessible funding.

Eligibility: The workshop is designed for graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, junior faculty, and research professionals.

Software: Participants should be familiar with Stata or R. Course instruction will be in Stata with parallel R code provided.

Application: Admission to this workshop is competitive and enrollment is limited to 25 in-person participants. To apply for this workshop, select the “Register Now” button, fill out the Summer Program registration form, select this workshop, and then upload the following application materials:

  • Current curriculum vitae (CV)
  • A cover letter summarizing:
    • Your research interest and planned analyses using PSID data
    • How the workshop will help you meet your research or educational goals
    • Where you learned about the workshop (e.g., word of mouth, listserv announcement, advertisement)
  • Applications from graduate students and postdoctoral fellows must include a letter of recommendation from a faculty advisor, project manager, or department chair. The letter writer should directly submit their recommendation to the ICPSR Summer Program at icpsr-sumprog@umich.edu and include the applicant’s name and “PSID Workshop” in the subject line or body of the email. The letter writer’s contact information (email address or telephone number) must be included in the letter of recommendation.

Deadline: April 15, 2026

Fee: $100, to be assessed only after applicants have been accepted into the workshop.

Sponsor: Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) with support from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, the National Institute on Aging, and the National Science Foundation.