Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology

UW Data Science Seminar: “The Statistical Crisis in Science”

The Statistical Crisis in Science
Andrew Gelman, Professor of Statistics and Political Science
Columbia University
Oct. 25, 2017, 3:30 p.m.
Physics/Astronomy Auditorium (PAA), A102

Abstract: Top journals routinely publish ridiculous, scientifically implausible claims, justified based on “p < 0.05.” And this in turn calls into question all sorts of more plausible, but not necessarily true, claims, that are supported by this same sort of evidence. To put it another way: we can all laugh at studies of ESP, or ovulation and voting, but what about MRI studies of political attitudes, or stereotype threat, or, for that matter, the latest potential cancer cure? If we can’t trust p-values, does experimental science involving human variation just have to start over? And what do we do in fields such as political science and economics, where preregistered replication can be difficult or impossible? Can Bayesian inference supply a solution? Maybe. These are not easy problems, but they’re important problems.

Ali Rowhani-Rahbar Examines Loaded Handgun Carrying Behaviors in the US

Affiliate Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, Professor of Epidemiology, co-authored a recent study that examines the nature of loaded handgun carrying in the US. From a nationally representative survey of adults conducted in 2015, lead author Rowhani-Rahbar and his co-authors were able to assess carrying behavior among handgun owners within a 30-day period, as well as concealed carrying in the context of individual state carrying laws. The outcomes of the study—which has been featured in the Washington Post and US News, among other sources—indicate that an estimated nine million handgun owners carry loaded weapons on a monthly basis, while three million carry them on a daily basis. Of those respondents who carry, the majority cited protection as their primary motivation for doing so. The full study is available below.

Donald Chi Explores Outcomes for Communities Served by Dental Therapists in YK Delta

A recent study by affiliate Donald Chi, Associate Professor of Oral Health Sciences, and colleagues explores the role that treatment by Dental Therapists plays in dental health outcomes in Alaska Native communities in the Yukon Kuskokwim (YK) Delta. Using data from the YK Health Corporation dental clinic electronic health record (EHR) and 10 years of Medicaid claims, principal investigator Chi and his co-investigators assessed five community-level outcomes—three for children and two for adults—based on number of Dental Therapist treatment days. The study, which was cited last week in a Huffington Post article, demonstrates that a higher number of Dental Therapist treatment days is associated with better dental health outcomes—specifically, greater rates of preventative care and lower rates of treatment, such as extractions—for communities in the YK Delta. The full study is accessible below.

CSDE Staff Matt Dunbar, Assistant Director and Spatial Demographer, and Michael Babb, former Research Scientist and Trainee, were a critical component of this project’s study team. Donald Chi made use of CSDE’s expertise in geocoding and data linking in order to bring together Alaska Medicaid Data and Dental Clinic Health Records based on community of residence. Please contact CSDE staff within any one of our service areas to inquire about how we can support your population research.

Jake Vigdor Discusses Seattle’s Unique Work Culture and Amazon’s HQ2

Affiliate Jake Vigdor, Professor at the Evans School, was quoted in a recent Politico article that considers Amazon’s growth within and impacts on the city of Seattle in light of the upcoming deadline for the company’s second headquarters, “HQ2”. Though Amazon was certainly responsible for explosive economic growth in Seattle, these effects will not necessarily translate to another city in the same way. According to Vigdor, this is in part due to Seattle’s uniquely innovative and entrepreneurial atmosphere, which has long attracted and retained talented workers. “There’s this inclination to think, ‘Hey, this is a town where new stuff is happening, where there’ll be some startup or some other opportunity for me,” which applies even for those who are unemployed. Though Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos has expressed his desire for the location of HQ2 to share qualities with Seattle, similar cities are likely to be expensive. As Vidgor notes, “bringing in 40,000 highly paid employees to compete for the same relatively constant supply of housing” would only compound the issue of affordability, which is one of Amazon’s selection criteria. The full article is available below.

Clair Yang Predicts Outcomes for President Xi Jinping’s Second Term

Affiliate Clair Yang was quoted last week in a Forbes article regarding potential outcomes for China as its 19^th Congress convenes, and President Xi Jinping is set to begin his second term. According to Yang, who is an Assistant Professor of International Studies at the Jackson School, there could be a “strengthening of censorship,” as well as implications for economic policy in light of the nation’s slowing economic growth. “In the short run, there is a possibility that we see China reverting to more conservative policies, trading economic vitality for stability,” she said. The full article is available below.

Unequal Mortality at Older Ages: Early Results from a New, Big Data Set

Josh Goldstein, Department of Demography, UC Berkeley

Josh will discuss early analysis of a newly created, very large public data set on old-age, individual mortality in the United States. By linking individual records from the 1940 census and Social Security Administration deaths, Josh and colleagues have built a new data set that allows the study of detailed covariates on a sample of millions of people. Josh will explain how the data set was created, some special methods needed to estimate mortality, and preliminary results on trends in educational, income, and racial disparities in mortality at ages 65+.

Post-doctoral Fellow in Historical Demography/Economic History

Lund University is inviting applications for a post-doc/early-stage researcher position in historical demography/economic history starting January 1, 2018 (or by agreement). The tenure is limited to two years, with a possibility of extension for an additional two years. The researcher will be employed at the Department of Economic History and be affiliated with the Center for Economic Demography at the Lund University School of Economics and Management (LUSEM). He/she will work in the research program “The Rise and Fall of the Industrial City: Landskrona Population Study” together with other post docs and senior researchers, doing demographic analyses using longitudinal individual-level data for the period 1900-2010.

Candidates must have a PhD in a field related to historical demography (e.g. Economic History, History, Demography, Economics, Sociology, Geography), received no more than three years ago (unless the applicant has been on parental leave or leave due to illness). Applications will also be accepted from persons who have not yet completed their PhD, but this condition must be satisfied at the time of employment.

More details about the post and information on how to apply can be found at the following link: https://lu.mynetworkglobal.com/en/what:job/jobID:172411/

The closing date for receipt of applications is November 15, 2017. We are unable to accept any late applications.

Postdoctoral Fellowships – Center for Demographic Research

The Centre for demographic research (DEMO) de l’Université catholique de Louvain – Belgium informs you of the launch of the «FSR Post-doc 2018» call for postdoc fellowships by the Université catholique de Louvain. These fellowships – for a period of 24 months – are addressed to researchers who have not stayed or worked in Belgium for more than 12 months over the last 3 years, and with maximum 5 years of postdoctoral experience.

Candidates must also apply in parallel to the Mandates of the F.R.S.-FNRS: https://www.frs-fnrs.be/index.php/appel-reglements.

Information on this call and application forms are available at: https://uclouvain.be/fr/chercher/actualites/fsr-2018-pour-l-octroi-de-10-bourses-de-postdoctorat.html.

The application for a postdoctoral fellowship needs to be supported by the Research Centre in which the applicant intends to work. Interested candidates are invited to follow this procedure:
• By Monday, November 20, 2017: send a CV (first three pages of the application form) and a preliminary project (1-2 pages). This should be sent by email to thierry.eggerickx@uclouvain.be.
•   Friday, December 8: shortlisted candidates will be informed by the research centre.
•   December 8, 2017 to January 29, 2018: Preparation of the application, with the support of the research centre.
•   January 29, 2018: deadline for submission of applications: crec-adre@uclouvain.be.

Research in the Centre for Demographic Research is organized around these broad themes:
•   Methods of data collection and data analysis
•   Historical demography
•   Couples formation, fertility, gender, and well-being
•   Ageing and intergenerational relations-
•   Health and Mortality
•   Migrations, urbanisation and spatial redistribution of population
•   Population and environment.

Here are some examples of general themes that can be supported:
•   Longterm urban, demographic and economic transitions: the role of internal and international migrations (P. Bocquier)
•   Child mortality, migration and family composition in Africa: comparative longitudinal analysis (P. Bocquier)
•   Socioeconomic inequalities and celibacy: international comparison of trends in marriage practices (P. Bocquier)
•   International migration during the interwar period (T. Eggerickx)
•   The migration of elderly (T. Eggerickx)
•   Bayesian modelling of mortality trends (B. Masquelier)
•   Mortality and causes of death in low and middle-income countries (B. Masquelier)
•   Social and spatial inequalities in mortality in Belgium (T. Eggerickx, B. Masquelier)
•   Microsimulation in demographic research (B. Masquelier)
•   Family transformations in a gender perspective (E. Rizzi)
•   Ageing and family ties (E. Rizzi)
•   Life course events and well-being (E. Rizzi)
•   International migration and integration in Belgium, with a focus on subSaharan African migrants (B. Schoumaker)
•   Links between policies, legal framework and migration in Belgium (B. Schoumaker)
•   Male fertility (B. Schoumaker)
•   Fertility changes in subSaharan Africa (B. Schoumaker)
Publications and research projects of our Research Centre are described in our activity reports.

MAGH Speaker Series: “An Anthropology of Vehicle Residency in Seattle”

“An Anthropology of Vehicle Residency in Seattle”
Graham Pruss, PhD Candidate, Department of Anthropology, University of Washington
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
3:30-4:50 PM
Kane Hall, Room 110

Abstract: Seattle has the third largest unhoused population in the US – almost half of these people, 42%, sleep in a car, truck, or RV. Despite the local prevalence of vehicle residency for over a decade, vehicle residencies are outside the scope of many advocacy or “anti-sweeps” protection efforts, and there are few programs to help stabilize this nuanced population. Moreover, many vehicle residents consider their vehicle a home, reject a “homeless” identity as well as related “homeless” services, and separate themselves from other “unsheltered” people who occupy public space. Graham Pruss, a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow at the UW Department of Anthropology, focuses on the increasing mobile survival behavior of vehicle residency from an ethnoarchaeological perspective. Mr. Pruss uses participant observation, spatial mapping, legal review, as well as ethnography to tell the story of vehicle residency in Seattle, and connect people who use nomadic survival behaviors to an ancient, cross-cultural history of sedentarist bias. Graham deconstructs mundane parking or zoning laws alongside social welfare policies, to show how the contemporary use of nomadic behaviors in a sedentary world subjects vehicle residents to the widespread criminalization of their primary survival strategy and their disaffiliation from social support.

Graham Pruss is the Executive Director of WeCount and a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow at the University of Washington. Graham’s research focuses on vehicle residency, the largest category of Seattle’s unsheltered population (36% in 2016) as well as one of the fastest growing segments of house-lessness across the US. Mr. Pruss led the Vehicle Residency Research Program at Seattle University, and has helped connect over one thousand people with social services through his weekly volunteer community meals and employment as Seattle’s only ‘outreach specialist’ for vehicle residents. Graham’s passion for this work comes from his personal experiences with homelessness as a youth, dependence on state welfare and food programs as a teenage parent, as well as the support of publicly-funded services and educational opportunities that empowered personal development through his life.

Next speaker: November 1 – Daniel Hoffman, Department of Anthropology, University of Washington

“The Trouble with Circles: Monrovia’s Ebola Quarantine and the Future of Armed Humanitarianism”

For more information about the MAGH speaker series, please contact coordinator Marieke van Eijk (mariev2@uw.edu)

Student Web Developer

Position Description

Urban@UW, Urbanalytics and the Cascadia Urban Analytics Cooperative are interdisciplinary units at the University of Washington that facilitate urban research and data analytics to improve quality of life, public health and sustainability in cities. Research areas include housing and homelessness, regional transportation systems and environmental justice. The Taskar Center for Accessible Technology is an initiative in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering that is focused on translating novel research and technologies for use by populations with disabilities.

We are looking for a web designer to maintain, edit and trouble-shoot these websites with a variety of content types. The websites are designed in Expression Engine, Github, Jekyll and WordPress. In addition to maintenance, the Web Designer will re-design and migrate portions of the websites, providing technical expertise to carry out design specifications from several program managers. Assisting with content alignment, clear navigation and coordination between the websites may be required as well.

This position will work up to a maximum of 10 hours per week.

Responsibilities may include some or all of the following duties:

• Utilize website building and editing tools to edit the structure and content of the four noted websites.
• Provide website maintenance and updates on a routine and periodic basis.
• Create user-friendly documentation for future users to add and update content.
• Provide troubleshooting support for backend website issues and technical glitches in a timely manner as they arise.
• May provide work on additional websites that are connected to these initiatives.

Requirements:

• Proficient in building and maintaining websites using Github, Expression Engine, Jekyll, WordPress, HTML and CSS.
• Experience troubleshooting frontend and backend website issues.
• Experience developing documentation of technical processes, or demonstrated interest and aptitude in doing so (please submit relevant samples with your resume).
• Experience with full website design, including responsive design and image and video management.
• Understanding of the technical aspects of web design, including accessibility and search engine optimization best practices.
• Demonstrated ability using design and production software, specifically InDesign, Photoshop, and Sketch or other industry standard web design tools.
• Excellent written, verbal and interpersonal communication skills that include the ability to work comfortably and professionally with a diverse population.
• Ability to prioritize tasks and projects with minimal supervision.
• Must own a laptop and be comfortable working remotely.