Wednesday, 9 January | 12:30–1:30pm | Savery (SAV) 409

Probabilistic Projection of Carbon Emissions

Adrian Raftery

Boeing International Professor, Departments of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington, https://www.stat.washington.edu/raftery/

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published climate change projections to 2100, giving likely ranges of global temperature increase for each of four possible scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use. We develop a probabilistic forecast of carbon emissions to 2100, using a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity, which expresses carbon emissions as a product of population, GDP per capita and carbon intensity (carbon per unit of GDP). We use the UN’s probabilistic population projections for all countries, based on methods from our group, and develop a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for GDP per capita and carbon intensity in most countries. In contrast with opinion-based scenarios, our findings are statistically based using data for 1960–2010. We find that our likely range (90% interval) for cumulative carbon emissions to 2100 includes the IPCC’s two middle scenarios but not the lowest or highest ones. We combine our results with the ensemble of climate models used by the IPCC to obtain a predictive distribution of global temperature increase to 2100.

This is joint work with Dargan Frierson (UW Atmospheric Science), Richard Startz (UCSB Economics), Alec Zimmer (Upstart), and Peiran Liu (UW Statistics).

About the Series

The weekly Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) seminar provides a forum for local and visiting scholars to present current research at the interface of statistics and the social sciences. Talks range in their level of technical detail and substantive motivation, and often result in spirited discussion. Students may receive credit for attending the seminar by enrolling in CS&SS 590 All seminars are held at 12:30 on Wednesdays in Savery (SAV) 409 unless otherwise noted, and we will aim to conclude by 1:30. We provide coffee and light refreshments; attendees are also welcome to bring their lunch. For information or questions about the CSSS Seminars, please contact our Seminar Organizers, Darryl Holman (djholman@uw.edu) or Will Brown (brownw@uw.edu). You can receive updates via a mailing list or calendar.

SocSem
For many decades, the UW Sociology Department sponsored biweekly area seminars that offered graduate students and faculty an opportunity to present and discuss research (often in progress).  In addition to improving the quality of our work, these seminars provided an important albeit informal setting for strengthening our bonds as a community, and as consequence, all across the country UW alums fondly recall Friday afternoons in the Dev Sem, the MACRO group, and IA.  In recent years these seminars withered, victims perhaps of a restructured graduate program, new centers on campus, busy schedules, and increasingly challenging commutes.

And yet, many of us lament the loss of regular opportunities to learn about each other’s work, to think about sociological problems outside our narrow interests, and to just spend time with others in the department.  Enter SocSem, a new biweekly seminar for the entire department.  We’ll gather mid-afternoon on Fridays for research presentations and lively discussion.  Following long-standing tradition, light refreshments will be provided.  Please mark your calendars, and plan to join us.

Short Workshop Offerings Winter Quarter 2019

(listed in order of scheduled appearance)

Introduction to R using Rstudio

Description:
This class will teach you how to get started with R using the free integrated development environment called Rstudio. The workshop will cover the basic organization of R and RStudio, where to find good help references, and how to begin a basic analysis. This class is ideal for users who have little or no experience with R.

Instructor: Yunkang Yang, CSSCR Consultant
Date: Friday, January 18, 2019
Time: 9:00am- 10:00am
Place: Savery 121

Introduction to Python

Description:
This class will provide you the basics of PYTHON for both gathering data from public sources and providing analyses.

Instructor: Mike Babb, CSSCR Consultant
Date: Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Time: 12:30pm – 1:30pm
Place: Savery 117

Introduction to GIS/ArcGIS

Description:
This workshop will provide students with a broad overview of what geographic information systems (GISs) are and how social scientists can benefit from using them in their research. Students will explore basic GIS concepts through hands-on exercises using ArcGIS, a widely used GIS software package, as well as freely available data sets.

Instructor: Aya Masilela, CSSCR Consultant
Date: Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Time: 3:30pm – 4:30pm
Place: Savery 117

Introduction to R using Rstudio

Description:
This class will teach you how to get started with R using the free integrated development environment called Rstudio. The workshop will cover the basic organization of R and RStudio, where to find good help references, and how to begin a basic analysis. This class is ideal for users who have little or no experience with R.

Instructor: Jasmine Jiang, CSSCR Consultant
Date: Thursday, January 24, 2019
Time: 2:30pm- 3:30pm
Place: Savery 121

Introduction to SPSS

Description:
This workshop introduces the SPSS statistical package including reading in datafiles as well as basic data management and introductory statistical procedures. Additional topics include computing and recoding variables and selecting and filtering cases.

Instructor: Galen Kerrick, CSSCR Consultant
Date: Friday, January 25, 2019
Time: 9:30am – 10:30am
Place: Savery 117

Introduction to STATA

Description:
This workshop will introduce you to the basic Stata statistical package including reading in STATA datasets, basic data manipulation in Stata, and common statistical procedures.

Instructor: Anwesha Pan, CSSCR Consultant
Date: Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Time: 3:30pm – 4:30pm
Place: Savery 121

Introduction to Qualitative Research and ATLAS.ti

Description:
This workshop provides a brief, practical introduction to working in ATLAS.ti, covering basic terminology and functionality of the program. This will include importing text documents, coding and annotating documents, and exploring relationships through analysis and query tools. Time permitting, we may also briefly discuss best practices for data management. The workshop assumes no prior use of Atlas-ti.

Instructor: Riddhi Mehta-Neugebauer, CSSCR Consultant
Date: Monday, January 28, 2019
Time: 12:30pm – 1:30pm
Place: Savery 121

Data Wrangling in R

Description:

This workshop will cover some of R’s useful tools for data management and exploration. Most of class will be devoted to learning Hadley Wickham’s excellent “tidyr” and “dplyr” packages. Attendees are assumed to have basic familiarity with R/Rstudio.

Instructor: Yuan Hsiao, CSSCR Consultant
Date: Tuesday,  February 5, 2019
Time: 3:30pm – 4:30pm
Place: Savery 121

Intermediate SPSS

Description:
This workshops builds from CSSCR’s introductory SPSS workshops and includes additional data management topics as well as more statistical procedures.

Instructor: Gabbs Gorsky, CSSCR Consultant
Date: Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Time: 12:30pm – 1:30pm
Place:  Savery 117

Register for any of the above workshops follow this link.

The German Historical Institute (GHI) is seeking applications for a Binational Visiting Fellow Tandem. The Fellowship program contributes to the creation of the new research network “Knowledge in Transit – Migrants’ Knowledge in Comparative Perspective” at the GHI West – Pacific regional office of the German Historical Institute Washington DC in Berkeley.

The GHI’s fellowship program promotes cutting-edge research in history and related disciplines and international exchange of scholars. For this purpose, the GHI in cooperation with the Institute of European Studies at UC Berkeley is now offering German and North American postdoctoral scholars the opportunity to develop a binational research tandem which links up two academics–one from Germany and one from North America–working on research in the field of history of migration. The projects should contain productive areas of overlap with the tandem partner either in their topics or in their conceptual frameworks. The visiting fellow tandem program at GHI WEST presents an excellent opportunity for scholars to develop their expertise by collaborating closely, to work with additional resources and to make connections with others in their fields. It is funded by the VolkswagenStiftung, one of Germany’s most important (non-profit) research foundations.

The program is designed for postdoctoral historians with a strong interest in the history of knowledge and an outstanding academic record. For German applicants, a good working knowledge of English is essential. In order to ensure successful collaboration, our preference is for applicants who are applying together with their potential tandem partner. Preference will also be given to candidates doing original research for a new book project.

Starting in September 2019, the successful applicants will be in residence at GHI WEST for a nine-month fellowship roughly corresponding to the Berkeley academic year. They will be expected to conduct their research and fully participate in the academic life at GHI WEST. Most prominently, they are invited to participate in the annual Bucerius Lecture “Histories of Migration: Transatlantic and Global Perspectives” and the attached Young Scholar Forum. Further, in collaboration with the permanent staff at GHI WEST, they will organize workshops for the currently developing research network “Knowledge in Transit”.

As affiliated researchers at GHI WEST, the fellows will have access to the UC Berkeley academic and social facilities (library, databases, email address, office space at the IES, etc.) and are offered the opportunity to make use of further resources in the greater Bay Area–including the Magnes Collection, the Hoover Institution Library and Archives in Stanford or the National Archives/ Pacific Region in San Bruno–while pursuing their research agendas.

A member institution of the Max Weber Foundation, the German Historical Institute Washington is a distinguished independent research institute, conducting inter- and transdisciplinary research with a transatlantic focus. GHI WEST is located at UC Berkeley’s Institute of European Studies. It organizes a series of programs and scholarly events aimed at facilitating cooperation and dialogue among North American and German researchers in the humanities and social sciences. GHI West’s research programs center on histories of knowledge and migration in a broadly comparative perspective, addressing the experiences of many different migrant groups, home and transit lands, and receiving societies. Moreover, they widen the geographical focus to include Pacific histories of migrant knowledge.

Funding will be provided for a 9-month stay at GHI WEST/ UC Berkeley. The monthly stipend will be 3,500 Euro per month (or the equivalent in USD). In addition, fellowship recipients will receive reimbursement for their round-trip economy airfare. The GHI regrets that it is unable to provide accommodation for its fellows.

The deadline for applications has been extended to December 10, 2018 February 1, 2019.

Eligibility Requirements

• Applicants should have completed a Ph.D. before the start date of the fellowship
• Applicants should be affiliated with a North American or European research institution or university
• Applicants should be able to take leave for the duration of the program to be in residence in Berkeley, CA for the fellowship

Applications Requirements
To apply, each tandem applicant should submit:

• a application form
• a cover letter
• a CV
• a copy of the certificate of your most recently achieved qualification or transcripts
• a research project proposal (5 pages or 2,000 words max)
• and the names and contact details of two referees (for each applicant)

While applicants may write in either English or German, we recommend that they use the language in which they are most proficient. We can accept applications in electronic form only.

Please submit your documents in a single PDF file to: fellowships@ghi-dc.org

All candidates will be notified by the end of February early March 2019 of the result of their application. For more information, please contact: Bryan Hart (hart@ghi-dc.org) or Andrea Westermann (westermann@ghi-dc.org)

IPUMS CPS and IPUMS Health Surveys are hiring data analysts. We are looking for smart, technically-minded people who enjoy working with data. As with all IPUMS projects, the signature activity is the integration of discrete datasets into a single consistently coded and documented series that enables comparative analyses over time. The environment is highly collaborative, and you will work closely with research scientists, data analysts, student research assistants, and software developers. We are constantly pushing the boundaries of data processing and dissemination methods, and there is considerable opportunity for initiative and creativity by all members of the research staff. Learn more about these positions and how to apply for them. Join the team at IPUMS HQ!

2 tenured researchers in Demography and associated disciplines at INED (Paris, France)

Deadline for requesting an application form: 18 January 2019, 5 pm (Paris)
Deadline for applications: 21 January 2019

The French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) will recruit two tenured researchers in 2019 in Demography and associated disciplines. One of the two posts will give priority to researchers working on topics relating to Population and Societies in Africa.
•    Post: Research scientist
•    Qualification required: PhD
•    Location: INED, Paris, France, 20th arrondissement
•    No age, gender or nationality requisites
•    Competition opening date: 20 December 2018
•    Deadline for requesting an application form: 18 January 2019, 5 pm
•    Deadline for applications: 21 January 2019

More information available at:
https://www.ined.fr/en/institute/joining-ined/competitive-examination/researchers-exams/

See attached the attached PDF for details.

The Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA) has just begun recruiting for a Director of Research. CEGA is a hub for research on global development, with a network of nearly 100 academic researchers extending across the University of California, Stanford University, and the University of Washington. The Director of Research is responsible for driving the intellectual agenda for the Center, working closely with the Faculty Director(s), Executive Director, faculty investigators, and program managers to identify and proactively pursue high-value research, capacity building, and related proposal development opportunities. This is an exciting opportunity for an active researcher and expert in the development economics field who is interested in contributing to the success of a fast-paced and dynamic research network. The JD is here, and watch CEGA’s Opportunities web page for the posting, coming soon.